Research & Analysis

Debt Ceiling And Stocks: Why The Media Is Deceiving You

October 18, 2013
I was taking a break from the meanderings of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the US Treasury bond market (TLT) yesterday when I came across an interesting YouTube video in which Stephen A. Smith, a well-known sportscaster and insightful social commentator, related how he had been thoroughly convinced by the dominant mass media coverage that George Zimmerman was guilty of the murder of Trayvon Martin. When he learned through the news media that Zimmerman had, in fact, been acquitted by a jury, Smith says he was shocked, hurt and outraged.
Gold Manipulation: What Investors Should Do Now

Gold Manipulation: What Investors Should Do Now

June 06, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary Barclays was recently fined in connection with a London scandal involving gold price manipulation. Promoters of conspiracy theories involving large-scale gold price suppression are claiming vindication. This article... Read More...

Bubble Watch: Imagine What Would Happen If Optimism Reigned

Bubble Watch: Imagine What Would Happen If Optimism Reigned

May 09, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary “Expensive” is not a synonym of “bubble.” Key ingredients of a systemically significant stock market bubble are missing. What would happen to the prices of US stocks if... Read More...

It’s Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500

It’s Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500

April 11, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary In this article I present one possible methodology for identifying a peak PE during a bull market cycle. Detailed comparative analysis suggests that on the basis of forward... Read More...

Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration

Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration

April 04, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary US households and businesses have accumulated enormous hoards of liquidity. The gradual normalization of risk aversion and liquidity preferences will drive a significant acceleration of spending growth. On... Read More...

The Nuclear Option: Russia’s Threat To Dump Treasuries

The Nuclear Option: Russia’s Threat To Dump Treasuries

March 14, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary An advisor to President Putin suggested that if the US dares to impose sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea, Russia and its allies should retaliate by dumping US... Read More...

This Time It Is Different – Americans Are More Pessimistic

This Time It Is Different – Americans Are More Pessimistic

March 07, 2014 - (0) comments

Summary Despite the recent string of all-time highs, from a market psychology perspective, there is little reason to believe that stocks are peaking. This time is very different from... Read More...

How Low Will The Stock Market Go?

How Low Will The Stock Market Go?

February 04, 2014 - (0) comments

One problem with stock market rallies that are characterized by steep and uninterrupted ascents, such as the one experienced during 2013, is that once a sell-off commences it becomes... Read More...

Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag?

Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag?

January 31, 2014 - (0) comments

According to many economists, one of the main factors that weighed down the US economy in 2013 and contributed to sub-trend GDP growth was the “fiscal drag” caused by... Read More...

My 2013 Year In Review

My 2013 Year In Review

December 31, 2013 - (0) comments

  In this essay, as I do every year, I am going to review some of the most important strategic developments of 2013, and I will specifically review how... Read More...

Other Categories